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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 7 at the 29

Arizona Cardinals 28 – Buffalo Bills 34

What Actually Happened

(:32) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass incomplete deep left to 4-G.Dortch (46-J.Ingram). Receiver and coverage along sideline at BUF 2.

The Three Options

GO +0.67 EP
What Happened
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +2.32 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 29, worth -0.26 EP
KICK +1.89 EP
Model's Pick
  • 75% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.69 EP
  • 25% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 39, worth -0.56 EP
PUNT -0.03 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth -0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.22 EP