Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cleveland Browns 4th & 15 at the 85

Cleveland Browns 3 – Dallas Cowboys 7

What Actually Happened

(:11) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 53 yards to DAL 32, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 9-K.Turpin pushed ob at DAL 49 for 17 yards (30-D.Bush). PENALTY on DAL-24-I.Mukuamu, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at DAL 39.

The Three Options

GO -2.98 EP

29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.38 EP
71% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 85, worth -4.76 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model