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Dallas Cowboys

1-0 HC Mike McCarthy
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Cleveland Browns

0-1 HC Kevin Stefanski
Sunday 2024-09-08 · 16:25 ET FirstEnergy Stadium, Cleveland US 💨 Windy Spread 2.5 O/U 42.0

Win Probability

DAL
71.5%
CLE
28.5%
💨 Windy

Confidence: strong edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.

Key Insights

  • DAL offense: +0.158 EPA/play over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
  • CLE offense: -0.186 EPA/play over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
  • QB edge to DAL: Deshaun Watson (CLE) -0.101 vs Dak Prescott (DAL) +0.221 EPA/dropback
  • DAL defense: +0.064 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (25th in the league)
  • Wind 17 mph

New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →

Predicted Final Score

DAL 24 17–31
–
CLE 17 10–24
Projected margin: DAL by 7 Projected total: 41

The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.

Injury Report — Week 1

DAL

John Stephens TE Out Hamstring

CLE

Jedrick Wills T Out Knee
Jack Conklin T Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2024 week 1 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

DAL 33
–
CLE 17

Prediction missed by 9 pts on margin, 9 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 09:28 FG CLE (9:28) 7-D.Hopkins 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez. DAL 0 – CLE 3
  • Q1 06:59 TD DAL (6:59) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass deep left to 3-B.Cooks for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 6 – CLE 3
  • Q2 05:18 TD DAL (5:18) (Shotgun) 15-E.Elliott up the middle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 13 – CLE 3
  • Q2 02:11 FG DAL (2:11) 17-B.Aubrey 57 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger. DAL 17 – CLE 3
  • Q2 00:55 FG DAL (:55) 17-B.Aubrey 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger. DAL 20 – CLE 3
  • Q3 13:15 TD DAL (13:15) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 49 yards to DAL 40, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 9-K.Turpin for 60 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 26 – CLE 3
  • Q3 08:46 TD CLE (8:46) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short right to 3-J.Jeudy for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 27 – CLE 9
  • Q3 01:31 FG DAL (1:31) 17-B.Aubrey 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger. DAL 30 – CLE 10
  • Q4 11:55 FG DAL (11:55) 17-B.Aubrey 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger. DAL 33 – CLE 10
  • Q4 00:33 TD CLE (:33) (No Huddle) 34-J.Ford right tackle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 33 – CLE 16

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 DAL 4th & 11 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (12:50) 5-B.Anger punts 42 yards to CLE 26, Center-44-T.Sieg. 16-J.Darden to DAL 46 for 28 yards (83-J.Brooks).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 CLE 4th & 7 at the 33
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 67%

    (9:28) 7-D.Hopkins 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 CLE 4th & 3 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 53%

    (4:57) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 58 yards to DAL 10, Center-47-C.Hughlett, downed by CLE-31-M.Ford.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 DAL 4th & 5 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (1:20) 5-B.Anger punts 52 yards to CLE 7, Center-44-T.Sieg. 16-J.Darden to CLE 20 for 13 yards (44-T.Sieg).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 CLE 4th & 15 at the 85
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (:11) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 53 yards to DAL 32, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 9-K.Turpin pushed ob at DAL 49 for 17 yards (30-D.Bush). PENALTY on DAL-24-I.Mukuamu, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at DAL 39.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 DAL 4th & 8 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (13:03) 5-B.Anger punts 46 yards to CLE 23, Center-44-T.Sieg, out of bounds.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 CLE 4th & 2 at the 69
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.71 EP
    p(convert) 60%

    (11:24) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 56 yards to DAL 13, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 9-K.Turpin to DAL 22 for 9 yards (20-P.Strong, 30-D.Bush).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 CLE 4th & 7 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (4:42) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 33 yards to DAL 44, Center-47-C.Hughlett, out of bounds.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 DAL 4th & 8 at the 39
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.69 EP
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 51%

    (2:11) 17-B.Aubrey 57 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 DAL 4th & 9 at the 22
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 88%

    (:55) 17-B.Aubrey 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 CLE 4th & 3 at the 66
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 52%

    (:19) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 46 yards to DAL 20, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 9-K.Turpin to DAL 40 for 20 yards (47-C.Hughlett).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 DAL 4th & 7 at the 67
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (7:58) 5-B.Anger punts 43 yards to CLE 24, Center-44-T.Sieg. 16-J.Darden to CLE 35 for 11 yards (44-T.Sieg). PENALTY on CLE-42-T.Fields, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at CLE 24.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 CLE 4th & 14 at the 85
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (6:46) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 62 yards to DAL 23, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 9-K.Turpin to DAL 42 for 19 yards (20-P.Strong). PENALTY on DAL-29-C.Goodwin, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at DAL 23.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 DAL 4th & 6 at the 83
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (5:29) 5-B.Anger punts 52 yards to CLE 31, Center-44-T.Sieg. 16-J.Darden ran ob at CLE 45 for 14 yards (14-M.Bell).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 CLE 4th & 6 at the 51
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 21%

    (4:02) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson sacked at CLE 46 for -3 yards (13-D.Overshown).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 DAL 4th & 11 at the 32
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 70%

    (1:31) 17-B.Aubrey 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 CLE 4th & 4 at the 62
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47%

    (14:15) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass incomplete deep left to 34-J.Ford (94-M.Kneeland) [13-D.Overshown].

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 DAL 4th & 12 at the 28
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 78%

    (11:55) 17-B.Aubrey 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 DAL 4th & 6 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47%

    (7:33) 5-B.Anger punts 59 yards to CLE 14, Center-44-T.Sieg. 16-J.Darden to CLE 31 for 17 yards (14-M.Bell). PENALTY on DAL-29-C.Goodwin, Player Out of Bounds on Kick, 5 yards, enforced at CLE 31.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 CLE 4th & 4 at the 44 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45% p(FG) 37%

    (4:55) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson scrambles left end to DAL 38 for 6 yards (18-D.Clark).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 CLE 4th & 1 at the 29 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 76%

    (3:02) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 20-P.Strong right guard to DAL 23 for 6 yards (11-M.Parsons, 28-M.Hooker).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 CLE 4th & 9 at the 22 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.89 EP
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 88%

    (1:32) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Watson scrambles up the middle to DAL 6 for 16 yards (30-J.Thomas).

    See the full breakdown →