4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 2 at the 69

Cleveland Browns 3 – Dallas Cowboys 7

What Actually Happened

(11:24) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 56 yards to DAL 13, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 9-K.Turpin to DAL 22 for 9 yards (20-P.Strong, 30-D.Bush).

The Three Options

GO -0.54 EP
Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +1.64 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 69, worth -3.76 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -1.25 EP
What Happened
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 27, worth -1.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.71 EP