Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 11 at the 68

Dallas Cowboys 0 – Cleveland Browns 0

(12:50) 5-B.Anger punts 42 yards to CLE 26, Center-44-T.Sieg. 16-J.Darden to DAL 46 for 28 yards (83-J.Brooks).

The Three Options

GO -1.98 EP

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +1.96 EP
64% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 68, worth -4.20 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model