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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 7 at the 77

Cleveland Browns 3 – Dallas Cowboys 14

What Actually Happened

(4:42) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 33 yards to DAL 44, Center-47-C.Hughlett, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.02 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.42 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 77, worth -4.28 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

PUNT -1.64 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 34, worth -1.64 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model