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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 8 at the 39

Dallas Cowboys 14 – Cleveland Browns 3

What Actually Happened

(2:11) 17-B.Aubrey 57 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.

The Three Options

GO +0.22 EP
Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +3.77 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 39, worth -1.92 EP
KICK -0.48 EP
What Happened
  • 51% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.52 EP
  • 49% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 48, worth -2.53 EP
PUNT -0.43 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth -0.43 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.69 EP