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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 9 at the 22

Dallas Cowboys 17 – Cleveland Browns 3

What Actually Happened

(:55) 17-B.Aubrey 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.

The Three Options

GO +1.30 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 13, worth +4.86 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 22, worth -0.50 EP
KICK +1.68 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 88% chance to make a 39-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.06 EP
  • 12% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 32, worth -1.11 EP
PUNT +0.14 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth +0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model