Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 3 at the 66

Cleveland Browns 3 – Dallas Cowboys 20

(:19) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 46 yards to DAL 20, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 9-K.Turpin to DAL 40 for 20 yards (47-C.Hughlett).

The Three Options

GO -0.73 EP

52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +0.74 EP
48% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 66, worth -2.36 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model