Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cleveland Browns 4th & 14 at the 85

Cleveland Browns 10 – Dallas Cowboys 27

What Actually Happened

(6:46) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 62 yards to DAL 23, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 9-K.Turpin to DAL 42 for 19 yards (20-P.Strong). PENALTY on DAL-29-C.Goodwin, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at DAL 23.

The Three Options

GO -3.11 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 71, worth +1.19 EP
70% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 85, worth -4.94 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model