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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 6 at the 83

Dallas Cowboys 27 – Cleveland Browns 10

What Actually Happened

(5:29) 5-B.Anger punts 52 yards to CLE 31, Center-44-T.Sieg. 16-J.Darden ran ob at CLE 45 for 14 yards (14-M.Bell).

The Three Options

GO -2.21 EP
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 77, worth +0.81 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 83, worth -4.98 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (100 yards).

PUNT -1.88 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 41, worth -1.88 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model