Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cleveland Browns 4th & 6 at the 51

Cleveland Browns 10 – Dallas Cowboys 27

What Actually Happened

(4:02) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson sacked at CLE 46 for -3 yards (13-D.Overshown).

The Three Options

GO -0.61 EP

What Happened

39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +2.83 EP
61% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 51, worth -2.79 EP

KICK -1.89 EP

21% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.59 EP
79% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 49, worth -2.80 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model