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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cleveland Browns 4th & 7 at the 33

Cleveland Browns 0 – Dallas Cowboys 0

What Actually Happened

(9:28) 7-D.Hopkins 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.

The Three Options

GO +0.73 EP
Model's Pick
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +4.62 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 33, worth -1.30 EP
KICK +0.66 EP
What Happened
  • 67% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.92 EP
  • 33% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 43, worth -1.92 EP
PUNT +0.16 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth +0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model