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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 9 at the 22

Cleveland Browns 10 – Dallas Cowboys 33

What Actually Happened

(1:32) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Watson scrambles up the middle to DAL 6 for 16 yards (30-J.Thomas).

The Three Options

GO +0.74 EP
What Happened
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 13, worth +4.39 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 22, worth -0.77 EP
KICK +1.63 EP
Model's Pick
  • 88% chance to make a 39-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.00 EP
  • 12% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 32, worth -1.05 EP
PUNT -0.43 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth -0.43 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.89 EP