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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 5 at the 59

Dallas Cowboys 7 – Cleveland Browns 3

What Actually Happened

(1:20) 5-B.Anger punts 52 yards to CLE 7, Center-44-T.Sieg. 16-J.Darden to CLE 20 for 13 yards (44-T.Sieg).

The Three Options

GO -0.46 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.45 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 59, worth -3.14 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.67 EP
What Happened
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 18, worth -0.67 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model