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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 3 at the 33

Philadelphia Eagles 14 – Green Bay Packers 19

What Actually Happened

(1:59) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short left to 6-D.Smith to GB 26 for 7 yards (58-I.McDuffie).

The Three Options

GO +0.64 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +2.97 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 33, worth -1.82 EP
KICK +0.25 EP
  • 72% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.20 EP
  • 28% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 43, worth -2.23 EP
PUNT -0.84 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.84 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model