4th & Data
EN ES
← Home
GB Away

Green Bay Packers

HC Matt LaFleur
@
PHI Home

Philadelphia Eagles

HC Nick Sirianni
Friday 2024-09-06 · 20:15 Arena Corinthians, Sao Paulo BR ☀️ Clear Spread 2.0 O/U 49.5

Win Probability

GB
75.3%
PHI
24.7%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • GB offense: +0.211 EPA/play over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
  • Neutral site — no home-field edge
  • PHI defense: +0.150 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
  • QB edge to GB: Jalen Hurts (PHI) +0.128 vs Jordan Love (GB) +0.289 EPA/dropback
  • GB defense: +0.081 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (27th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

GB 27
–
PHI 19
Projected margin: GB by 8 Projected total: 46

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 1

GB

Arron Mosby DE Out Not injury related - personal matter
Tucker Kraft TE Questionable Back
MarShawn Lloyd RB Questionable Hamstring
Emanuel Wilson RB Questionable Hip

PHI

Devin White LB Out Ankle
Isaiah Rodgers CB Out Hand

Pulled fresh for 2024 week 1 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

GB 29
–
PHI 34

Prediction missed by 13 pts on margin, 17 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 08:30 FG GB (8:30) 44-B.Narveson 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan. GB 3 – PHI 0
  • Q1 03:04 FG GB (3:04) 44-B.Narveson 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan. GB 6 – PHI 0
  • Q2 12:43 TD PHI (12:43) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass deep left to 26-S.Barkley for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 6 – PHI 6
  • Q2 10:24 TD GB (10:24) (Shotgun) 11-J.Reed right end for 33 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 12 – PHI 7
  • Q2 05:38 TD PHI (5:38) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 26-S.Barkley right guard for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 12 – PHI 13
  • Q2 05:22 TD GB (5:22) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass deep right to 11-J.Reed for 70 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 18 – PHI 14
  • Q2 00:04 FG PHI (:04) 4-J.Elliott 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-R.Lovato, Holder-10-B.Mann. GB 19 – PHI 17
  • Q3 14:22 TD PHI (14:22) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass deep right to 11-A.Brown for 67 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 19 – PHI 23
  • Q3 11:58 TD GB (11:58) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short left to 9-C.Watson for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 25 – PHI 24
  • Q3 04:32 TD PHI (4:32) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 26-S.Barkley up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 26 – PHI 30
  • Q4 07:56 FG GB (7:56) 44-B.Narveson 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan. GB 29 – PHI 31
  • Q4 00:30 FG PHI (:30) 4-J.Elliott 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-R.Lovato, Holder-10-B.Mann. Penalty on GB-29-X.McKinney, Defensive Offside, declined. GB 29 – PHI 34

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 GB 4th & 11 at the 43
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.34 EP
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 45%

    (11:47) 19-D.Whelan punts 33 yards to PHI 10, Center-42-M.Orzech, out of bounds.

  • Q1 GB 4th & 11 at the 13
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.50 EP
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 96%

    (8:30) 44-B.Narveson 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.

  • Q1 GB 4th & 2 at the 5
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 60% p(FG) 98%

    (4:44) 8-J.Jacobs right tackle to PHI 3 for 2 yards (8-C.Gardner-Johnson; 53-Z.Baun).

  • Q1 GB 4th & 5 at the 5
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.93 EP
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 98%

    (3:04) 44-B.Narveson 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.

  • Q2 PHI 4th & 3 at the 33
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 51% p(FG) 71%

    (1:59) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short left to 6-D.Smith to GB 26 for 7 yards (58-I.McDuffie).

  • Q2 PHI 4th & 16 at the 20
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 91%

    (:04) 4-J.Elliott 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-R.Lovato, Holder-10-B.Mann.

  • Q3 PHI 4th & 14 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (10:34) 10-B.Mann punts 54 yards to GB 20, Center-49-R.Lovato, fair catch by 11-J.Reed.

  • Q3 GB 4th & 15 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (8:56) 19-D.Whelan punts 41 yards to PHI 32, Center-42-M.Orzech, fair catch by 18-B.Covey.

  • Q3 PHI 4th & 2 at the 60
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.64 EP
    p(convert) 62%

    (7:27) 10-B.Mann punts 47 yards to GB 13, Center-49-R.Lovato, fair catch by 11-J.Reed.

  • Q3 GB 4th & 10 at the 25
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 86%

    (:21) 44-B.Narveson 43 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.

  • Q4 GB 4th & 5 at the 8
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.99 EP
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 98%

    (7:56) 44-B.Narveson 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.

  • Q4 PHI 4th & 3 at the 3 late-game
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.57 EP
    p(convert) 47% p(FG) 98%

    (:30) 4-J.Elliott 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-R.Lovato, Holder-10-B.Mann. Penalty on GB-29-X.McKinney, Defensive Offside, declined.