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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 14 at the 74

Philadelphia Eagles 24 – Green Bay Packers 26

What Actually Happened

(10:34) 10-B.Mann punts 54 yards to GB 20, Center-49-R.Lovato, fair catch by 11-J.Reed.

The Three Options

GO -2.24 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.17 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 74, worth -4.26 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

PUNT -1.32 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 32, worth -1.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model