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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Green Bay Packers 4th & 15 at the 73

Green Bay Packers 26 – Philadelphia Eagles 24

What Actually Happened

(8:56) 19-D.Whelan punts 41 yards to PHI 32, Center-42-M.Orzech, fair catch by 18-B.Covey.

The Three Options

GO -2.10 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +2.10 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 73, worth -4.36 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -1.51 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 31, worth -1.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model