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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 2 at the 60

Philadelphia Eagles 24 – Green Bay Packers 26

What Actually Happened

(7:27) 10-B.Mann punts 47 yards to GB 13, Center-49-R.Lovato, fair catch by 11-J.Reed.

The Three Options

GO +0.12 EP
Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +2.28 EP
  • 38% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 60, worth -3.33 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -0.52 EP
What Happened
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 19, worth -0.52 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.64 EP