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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 3 at the 3

Philadelphia Eagles 31 – Green Bay Packers 29

What Actually Happened

(:30) 4-J.Elliott 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-R.Lovato, Holder-10-B.Mann. Penalty on GB-29-X.McKinney, Defensive Offside, declined.

The Three Options

GO +3.29 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.70 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 3, worth +0.21 EP
KICK +2.72 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 20-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.76 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.12 EP
PUNT -0.02 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.57 EP