4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Green Bay Packers 4th & 2 at the 5

Green Bay Packers 3 – Philadelphia Eagles 0

What Actually Happened

(4:44) 8-J.Jacobs right tackle to PHI 3 for 2 yards (8-C.Gardner-Johnson; 53-Z.Baun).

The Three Options

GO +3.45 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +6.06 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 5, worth -0.38 EP
KICK +1.07 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 22-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.11 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 21, worth -1.24 EP
PUNT -0.62 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.62 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model