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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Green Bay Packers 4th & 5 at the 5

Green Bay Packers 3 – Philadelphia Eagles 0

What Actually Happened

(3:04) 44-B.Narveson 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.

The Three Options

GO +1.44 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +4.49 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 5, worth -0.98 EP
KICK +0.51 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 22-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +0.55 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 21, worth -1.80 EP
PUNT -1.26 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -1.26 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.92 EP