4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Detroit Lions 4th & 4 at the 64

Detroit Lions 10 – Los Angeles Rams 3

What Actually Happened

(13:46) 3-J.Fox punts 64 yards to end zone, Center-49-H.Hatten, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.49 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.34 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 64, worth -3.69 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT -0.82 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 22, worth -0.82 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.33 EP