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Los Angeles Rams

HC Sean McVay
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Detroit Lions

HC Dan Campbell
Sunday 2024-09-08 · 20:20 Ford Field, Detroit US 🏟 Dome Spread 5.0 O/U 54.0

Win Probability

LA
51.5%
DET
48.5%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • LA offense: +0.179 EPA/play over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
  • DET offense: +0.145 EPA/play over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
  • DET defense: +0.101 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (28th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • QB edge to DET: Jared Goff (DET) +0.170 vs Matthew Stafford (LA) +0.131 EPA/dropback

Predicted Final Score

LA 27
–
DET 26
Projected margin: LA by 1 Projected total: 53

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 1

LA

Rob Havenstein T Questionable Ankle

DET

Loren Strickland S Out Thumb
Ifeatu Melifonwu S Doubtful Ankle
D.J. Reader DT Questionable Quadricep

Pulled fresh for 2024 week 1 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

LA 20
–
DET 26

Prediction missed by 7 pts on margin, 7 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 04:54 FG LA (4:54) 16-J.Karty 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-42-E.Evans. LA 3 – DET 0
  • Q2 12:20 FG DET (12:20) 39-J.Bates 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox. LA 3 – DET 3
  • Q2 02:00 TD DET (2:00) 26-J.Gibbs left tackle to LA 1 for no gain (3-K.Curl, 51-T.Reeder). The Replay Official reviewed the short of the goal line ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 26-J.Gibbs left tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. LA 3 – DET 9
  • Q3 10:37 TD DET (10:37) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass deep left to 9-J.Williams for 52 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on LA-27-T.White, Illegal Contact, declined. LA 3 – DET 16
  • Q3 03:36 TD LA (3:36) 23-K.Williams right tackle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA 9 – DET 17
  • Q4 12:35 FG LA (12:35) 16-J.Karty 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-42-E.Evans. LA 13 – DET 17
  • Q4 04:35 TD LA (4:35) 9-M.Stafford pass short left to 10-C.Kupp for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA 19 – DET 17
  • Q4 00:20 FG DET (:20) 39-J.Bates 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox. LA 20 – DET 20
  • Q5 05:24 TD DET (5:24) 5-D.Montgomery right tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. LA 20 – DET 26

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 LA 4th & 13 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (13:38) 42-E.Evans punts 48 yards to DET 25, Center-47-A.Ward. 11-K.Raymond to DET 36 for 11 yards (56-C.Rozeboom; 20-R.Rivers).

  • Q1 DET 4th & 13 at the 67
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (11:29) 3-J.Fox punts 67 yards to end zone, Center-49-H.Hatten, Touchback. PENALTY on LA-56-C.Rozeboom, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at LA 20.

  • Q1 LA 4th & 14 at the 23
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 90%

    (4:54) 16-J.Karty 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-42-E.Evans.

  • Q2 DET 4th & 2 at the 27
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 60% p(FG) 86%

    (14:56) (Shotgun) 5-D.Montgomery up the middle to LA 24 for 3 yards (95-B.Brown).

  • Q2 DET 4th & 7 at the 7
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.45 EP
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 98%

    (12:20) 39-J.Bates 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox.

  • Q2 LA 4th & 4 at the 23
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49% p(FG) 90%

    (6:36) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete short right to 10-C.Kupp [92-M.Davenport].

  • Q3 DET 4th & 4 at the 64
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.33 EP
    p(convert) 53%

    (13:46) 3-J.Fox punts 64 yards to end zone, Center-49-H.Hatten, Touchback.

  • Q3 LA 4th & 10 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (12:12) 42-E.Evans punts 43 yards to DET 37, Center-47-A.Ward. 11-K.Raymond to DET 41 for 4 yards (31-N.Hampton, 22-B.Corum).

  • Q3 LA 4th & 3 at the 29
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 55% p(FG) 83%

    (5:38) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short middle to 15-D.Robinson to DET 15 for 14 yards (31-K.Joseph). DET-0-T.Arnold was injured during the play.

  • Q3 DET 4th & 1 at the 61
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.27 EP
    p(convert) 74%

    (1:42) 3-J.Fox punts 45 yards to LA 16, Center-49-H.Hatten. 23-K.Williams to LA 16 for no gain.

  • Q4 LA 4th & 8 at the 8
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.41 EP
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 98%

    (12:35) 16-J.Karty 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-42-E.Evans.

  • Q4 DET 4th & 5 at the 65 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49%

    (4:17) 3-J.Fox punts 54 yards to LA 11, Center-49-H.Hatten, fair catch by 23-K.Williams.

  • Q4 LA 4th & 10 at the 78 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (2:21) 42-E.Evans punts 50 yards to DET 28, Center-47-A.Ward. 11-K.Raymond to DET 31 for 3 yards (88-J.Whittington).

  • Q4 DET 4th & 5 at the 14 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 96%

    (:20) 39-J.Bates 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox.