Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 10 at the 80

Los Angeles Rams 3 – Detroit Lions 10

(12:12) 42-E.Evans punts 43 yards to DET 37, Center-47-A.Ward. 11-K.Raymond to DET 41 for 4 yards (31-N.Hampton, 22-B.Corum).

The Three Options

GO -2.23 EP

41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.29 EP
59% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 80, worth -4.70 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model