Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Detroit Lions 4th & 13 at the 67

Detroit Lions 0 – Los Angeles Rams 0

What Actually Happened

(11:29) 3-J.Fox punts 67 yards to end zone, Center-49-H.Hatten, Touchback. PENALTY on LA-56-C.Rozeboom, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at LA 20.

The Three Options

GO -1.41 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.99 EP
66% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 67, worth -3.66 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model