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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 8 at the 8

Los Angeles Rams 10 – Detroit Lions 17

What Actually Happened

(12:35) 16-J.Karty 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-42-E.Evans.

The Three Options

GO +1.93 EP
Model's Pick
  • 36% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.52 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 8, worth -0.07 EP
KICK +1.52 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 25-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.58 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 21, worth -0.87 EP
PUNT -0.20 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth -0.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.41 EP