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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Detroit Lions 4th & 5 at the 65

Detroit Lions 17 – Los Angeles Rams 20

What Actually Happened

(4:17) 3-J.Fox punts 54 yards to LA 11, Center-49-H.Hatten, fair catch by 23-K.Williams.

The Three Options

GO -0.92 EP
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.46 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 65, worth -3.23 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -0.71 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 23, worth -0.71 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model