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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Detroit Lions 4th & 5 at the 14

Detroit Lions 17 – Los Angeles Rams 20

What Actually Happened

(:20) 39-J.Bates 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox.

The Three Options

GO +1.78 EP
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 9, worth +4.22 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 14, worth -0.04 EP
KICK +2.67 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 31-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.79 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 24, worth -0.13 EP
PUNT -0.02 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model