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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 14 at the 23

Los Angeles Rams 0 – Detroit Lions 0

What Actually Happened

(4:54) 16-J.Karty 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-42-E.Evans.

The Three Options

GO +0.70 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 9, worth +5.26 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 23, worth -1.18 EP
KICK +1.00 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 90% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.32 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 33, worth -1.93 EP
PUNT -0.39 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth -0.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model