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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Detroit Lions 4th & 2 at the 27

Detroit Lions 0 – Los Angeles Rams 3

What Actually Happened

(14:56) (Shotgun) 5-D.Montgomery up the middle to LA 24 for 3 yards (95-B.Brown).

The Three Options

GO +2.36 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +4.46 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 27, worth -0.75 EP
KICK +1.42 EP
  • 86% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.95 EP
  • 14% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 37, worth -1.74 EP
PUNT +0.20 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth +0.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model