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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 1 at the 61

Los Angeles Chargers 3 – Las Vegas Raiders 7

What Actually Happened

(14:22) 16-J.Scott punts 52 yards to LV 9, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 11-T.Tucker.

The Three Options

GO +0.56 EP
Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.32 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 61, worth -3.18 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -0.45 EP
What Happened
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 20, worth -0.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.01 EP