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Las Vegas Raiders

HC Antonio Pierce
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Los Angeles Chargers

HC Jim Harbaugh
Sunday 2024-09-08 · 16:05 SoFi Stadium, Inglewood US 🏟 Dome Spread 3.0 O/U 41.0

Win Probability

LV
48.9%
LAC
51.1%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • LAC offense: -0.178 EPA/play over its last 8 games (28th in the league)
  • LV offense: -0.062 EPA/play over its last 8 games (22nd in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • Gardner Minshew (LV): -0.022 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • LV defense: -0.077 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (7th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

LV 21
–
LAC 22
Projected margin: LAC by 1 Projected total: 43

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 1

LV

Malcolm Koonce DE Out Knee
Jackson Powers-Johnson G Out Illness
Decamerion Richardson CB Out Hamstring
Tommy Eichenberg LB Questionable Knee

LAC

D.J. Chark WR Out Hip
Tarheeb Still CB Questionable Hip
Asante Samuel CB Questionable Shoulder

Pulled fresh for 2024 week 1 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

LV 10
–
LAC 22

Prediction missed by 11 pts on margin, 11 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 04:27 FG LAC (4:27) 11-C.Dicker 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott. LV 0 – LAC 3
  • Q1 00:54 TD LV (:54) (Shotgun) 15-G.Minshew pass short right to 22-A.Mattison for 31 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LV 6 – LAC 3
  • Q2 00:29 FG LAC (:29) 11-C.Dicker 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott. LV 7 – LAC 6
  • Q3 09:11 FG LAC (9:11) 11-C.Dicker 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott. LV 7 – LAC 9
  • Q4 15:00 TD LAC (15:00) (Shotgun) 27-J.Dobbins right tackle for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LV 7 – LAC 15
  • Q4 10:33 FG LV (10:33) 2-D.Carlson 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole. LV 10 – LAC 16
  • Q4 03:47 TD LAC (3:47) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short left to 15-L.McConkey for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LV 10 – LAC 22

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 LAC 4th & 8 at the 49
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 39%

    (11:51) 16-J.Scott punts 28 yards to LV 21, Center-47-J.Harris, out of bounds.

  • Q1 LV 4th & 1 at the 70
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.96 EP
    p(convert) 72%

    (9:37) 6-A.Cole punts 57 yards to LAC 13, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, fair catch by 12-D.Davis.

  • Q1 LAC 4th & 6 at the 83
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (7:39) 16-J.Scott punts 51 yards to LV 32, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 11-T.Tucker.

  • Q1 LV 4th & 1 at the 59
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 70%

    (6:00) (Shotgun) 3-Z.White up the middle to LV 40 for -1 yards (95-P.Ford).

  • Q1 LAC 4th & 5 at the 35
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 73%

    (4:27) 11-C.Dicker 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.

  • Q2 LAC 4th & 1 at the 61
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.01 EP
    p(convert) 68%

    (14:22) 16-J.Scott punts 52 yards to LV 9, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 11-T.Tucker.

  • Q2 LV 4th & 2 at the 83
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.84 EP
    p(convert) 63%

    (12:20) 6-A.Cole punts 52 yards to LAC 31, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, fair catch by 12-D.Davis.

  • Q2 LAC 4th & 7 at the 55
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (9:06) 16-J.Scott punts 55 yards to end zone, Center-47-J.Harris, Touchback.

  • Q2 LAC 4th & 4 at the 83
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (2:18) 16-J.Scott punts 56 yards to LV 27, Center-47-J.Harris. 11-T.Tucker to LV 34 for 7 yards (33-D.Leonard).

  • Q2 LAC 4th & 5 at the 7
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 98%

    (:29) 11-C.Dicker 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.

  • Q3 LV 4th & 2 at the 62
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.81 EP
    p(convert) 60%

    (13:02) 6-A.Cole punts 62 yards to end zone, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Touchback.

  • Q3 LAC 4th & 6 at the 6
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 98%

    (9:11) 11-C.Dicker 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.

  • Q3 LAC 4th & 4 at the 49
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 39%

    (6:56) 16-J.Scott punts 49 yards to end zone, Center-47-J.Harris, Touchback.

  • Q3 LV 4th & 7 at the 31
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 80%

    (2:06) 2-D.Carlson 49 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole.

  • Q4 LV 4th & 1 at the 14
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.65 EP
    p(convert) 65% p(FG) 96%

    (10:33) 2-D.Carlson 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole.

  • Q4 LAC 4th & 8 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (9:40) 16-J.Scott punts 41 yards to LV 27, Center-47-J.Harris. 11-T.Tucker pushed ob at LV 48 for 21 yards (43-T.Dye).

  • Q4 LV 4th & 1 at the 43
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.96 EP
    p(convert) 69% p(FG) 54%

    (7:15) 6-A.Cole punts 35 yards to LAC 8, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, fair catch by 12-D.Davis.