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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 7 at the 55

Los Angeles Chargers 3 – Las Vegas Raiders 7

What Actually Happened

(9:06) 16-J.Scott punts 55 yards to end zone, Center-47-J.Harris, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.77 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.93 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 55, worth -2.81 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.70 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 16, worth -0.70 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model