Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 6 at the 83

Los Angeles Chargers 0 – Las Vegas Raiders 0

(7:39) 16-J.Scott punts 51 yards to LV 32, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 11-T.Tucker.

The Three Options

GO -2.31 EP

42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 77, worth +1.16 EP
58% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 83, worth -4.77 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (100 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model