4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 1 at the 59

Las Vegas Raiders 0 – Los Angeles Chargers 0

What Actually Happened

(6:00) (Shotgun) 3-Z.White up the middle to LV 40 for -1 yards (95-P.Ford).

The Three Options

GO +0.26 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +1.77 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 59, worth -3.33 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.94 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 18, worth -0.94 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model