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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Jets 4th & 3 at the 63

New York Jets 0 – San Francisco 49ers 0

What Actually Happened

(13:38) 6-T.Morstead punts 55 yards to SF 8, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 19-J.Cowing.

The Three Options

GO -1.10 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.83 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 63, worth -3.96 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

PUNT -1.39 EP
What Happened
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 21, worth -1.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model