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New York Jets

HC Robert Saleh
@
SF Home

San Francisco 49ers

HC Kyle Shanahan
Monday 2024-09-09 · 20:15 Levi's Stadium, Santa Clara US ☀️ Clear Spread 3.5 O/U 43.0

Win Probability

NYJ
16.3%
SF
83.7%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • NYJ offense: -0.295 EPA/play over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
  • SF offense: +0.160 EPA/play over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
  • QB edge to SF: Brock Purdy (SF) +0.261 vs Aaron Rodgers (NYJ) -0.033 EPA/dropback
  • NYJ defense: -0.157 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)

Predicted Final Score

NYJ 17
–
SF 29
Projected margin: SF by 12 Projected total: 46

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 1

NYJ

Zaire Barnes LB Out Ankle
Wes Schweitzer G Out Hand

SF

Yetur Gross-Matos DE Out Knee
Dee Winters LB Out Ankle
Talanoa Hufanga S Doubtful Knee
Aaron Banks G Questionable Finger
Christian McCaffrey RB Questionable Calf

Pulled fresh for 2024 week 1 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NYJ 19
–
SF 32

Prediction missed by 1 pts on margin, 5 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 11:03 FG SF (11:03) 4-J.Moody 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-3-M.Wishnowsky. NYJ 0 – SF 3
  • Q1 03:57 TD NYJ (3:57) 20-B.Hall right tackle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 6 – SF 3
  • Q2 14:10 FG SF (14:10) 4-J.Moody 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-3-M.Wishnowsky. NYJ 7 – SF 6
  • Q2 07:00 TD SF (7:00) 1-D.Samuel right end for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 7 – SF 12
  • Q2 00:08 FG SF (:08) 4-J.Moody 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-3-M.Wishnowsky. NYJ 7 – SF 16
  • Q3 07:47 TD SF (7:47) 24-J.Mason up the middle for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 7 – SF 22
  • Q3 03:33 FG SF (3:33) 4-J.Moody 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-3-M.Wishnowsky. NYJ 7 – SF 26
  • Q3 01:43 TD NYJ (1:43) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass deep middle to 10-A.Lazard for 36 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on SF-56-L.Floyd, Defensive Offside, declined. NYJ 13 – SF 26
  • Q4 09:46 FG SF (9:46) 4-J.Moody 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-3-M.Wishnowsky. NYJ 13 – SF 29
  • Q4 04:24 FG SF (4:24) 4-J.Moody 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-3-M.Wishnowsky. NYJ 13 – SF 32
  • Q4 00:30 TD NYJ (:30) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 2-T.Taylor pass short left to 10-A.Lazard for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 19 – SF 32

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 NYJ 4th & 3 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49%

    (13:38) 6-T.Morstead punts 55 yards to SF 8, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 19-J.Cowing.

  • Q1 SF 4th & 2 at the 84
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.01 EP
    p(convert) 65%

    (12:04) 3-M.Wishnowsky punts 58 yards to NYJ 26, Center-46-T.Pepper. 82-X.Gipson to NYJ 30 for 4 yards (0-R.Green).

  • Q1 SF 4th & 7 at the 29
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 79%

    (11:03) 4-J.Moody 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-3-M.Wishnowsky.

  • Q2 SF 4th & 9 at the 33
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 71%

    (14:10) 4-J.Moody 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-3-M.Wishnowsky.

  • Q2 NYJ 4th & 10 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (12:54) 6-T.Morstead punts 45 yards to SF 25, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 19-J.Cowing to SF 33 for 8 yards (55-C.Surratt).

  • Q2 NYJ 4th & 5 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (5:28) 6-T.Morstead punts 60 yards to SF 5, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 19-J.Cowing ran ob at SF 12 for 7 yards (44-J.Sherwood).

  • Q2 SF 4th & 10 at the 13
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 96%

    (:08) 4-J.Moody 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-3-M.Wishnowsky.

  • Q3 SF 4th & 2 at the 35
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.16 EP
    p(convert) 59% p(FG) 67%

    (3:33) 4-J.Moody 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-3-M.Wishnowsky.

  • Q4 SF 4th & 1 at the 5
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +2.04 EP
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 98%

    (9:46) 4-J.Moody 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-3-M.Wishnowsky.

  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 1 at the 50
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 28%

    (7:26) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass incomplete short left to 5-G.Wilson (22-I.Yiadom).

  • Q4 SF 4th & 8 at the 24 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 87%

    (4:24) 4-J.Moody 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-3-M.Wishnowsky.