Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 5 at the 65

New York Jets 7 – San Francisco 49ers 13

(5:28) 6-T.Morstead punts 60 yards to SF 5, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 19-J.Cowing ran ob at SF 12 for 7 yards (44-J.Sherwood).

The Three Options

GO -1.43 EP

41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.89 EP
59% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 65, worth -3.74 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model