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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 10 at the 13

San Francisco 49ers 13 – New York Jets 7

What Actually Happened

(:08) 4-J.Moody 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-3-M.Wishnowsky.

The Three Options

GO +1.29 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +4.27 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 13, worth +0.01 EP
KICK +2.83 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.96 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 23, worth -0.01 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model