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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 2 at the 84

San Francisco 49ers 0 – New York Jets 0

What Actually Happened

(12:04) 3-M.Wishnowsky punts 58 yards to NYJ 26, Center-46-T.Pepper. 82-X.Gipson to NYJ 30 for 4 yards (0-R.Green).

The Three Options

GO -0.89 EP
Model's Pick
  • 65% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 82, worth +1.17 EP
  • 35% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 84, worth -4.72 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (101 yards).

PUNT -1.90 EP
What Happened
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 42, worth -1.90 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.01 EP