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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 2 at the 35

San Francisco 49ers 23 – New York Jets 7

What Actually Happened

(3:33) 4-J.Moody 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-3-M.Wishnowsky.

The Three Options

GO +1.61 EP
Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +3.79 EP
  • 41% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 35, worth -1.53 EP
KICK +0.45 EP
What Happened
  • 67% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.78 EP
  • 33% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 45, worth -2.21 EP
PUNT +0.05 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth +0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.16 EP