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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 8 at the 24

San Francisco 49ers 29 – New York Jets 13

What Actually Happened

(4:24) 4-J.Moody 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-3-M.Wishnowsky.

The Three Options

GO +1.11 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 16, worth +4.47 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 24, worth -0.67 EP
KICK +1.53 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 87% chance to make a 41-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.95 EP
  • 13% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 34, worth -1.22 EP
PUNT -0.23 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth -0.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model