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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 7 at the 29

San Francisco 49ers 0 – New York Jets 0

What Actually Happened

(11:03) 4-J.Moody 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-3-M.Wishnowsky.

The Three Options

GO +1.21 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +4.77 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 29, worth -0.91 EP
KICK +1.30 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 79% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.07 EP
  • 21% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 39, worth -1.69 EP
PUNT +0.32 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth +0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model