4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 4 at the 53

Chicago Bears 0 – Tennessee Titans 10

What Actually Happened

(12:19) 19-T.Taylor punts 43 yards to TEN 10, Center-46-S.Daly. 19-J.Jackson to TEN 17 for 7 yards (21-J.Jones). PENALTY on CHI-35-K.Blasingame, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at TEN 17.

The Three Options

GO -0.11 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.80 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 53, worth -2.82 EP
KICK -1.65 EP
  • 23% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.68 EP
  • 77% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 49, worth -2.64 EP
PUNT -0.65 EP
What Happened
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 15, worth -0.65 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.54 EP