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Tennessee Titans

0-1 HC Brian Callahan
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Chicago Bears

1-0 HC Matt Eberflus
Sunday 2024-09-08 · 13:00 ET Soldier Field, Chicago US ☀️ Clear Spread 4.0 O/U 43.0

Win Probability

TEN
31.3%
CHI
68.7%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: clear edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.

Key Insights

  • QB edge to CHI: Caleb Williams (CHI) +0.140 vs Will Levis (TEN) -0.013 EPA/dropback
  • TEN offense: -0.042 EPA/play over its last 8 games (19th in the league)
  • CHI defense: -0.110 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (5th in the league)

New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →

Predicted Final Score

TEN 20 13–27
–
CHI 26 19–33
Projected margin: CHI by 6 Projected total: 46

The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.

Injury Report — Week 1

TEN

Jamal Adams S Out Hip
Otis Reese LB Out Concussion
Chidobe Awuzie CB Questionable Calf
DeAndre Hopkins WR Questionable Knee

CHI

Zacch Pickens DT Out Groin
Darrell Taylor DE Questionable Foot
Keenan Allen WR Questionable Heel
Montez Sweat DE Questionable Toe
DeMarcus Walker DE Questionable Groin

Pulled fresh for 2024 week 1 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

TEN 17
–
CHI 24

Prediction missed by 1 pts on margin, 5 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 00:47 TD TEN (:47) (Shotgun) 20-T.Pollard left guard for 26 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 6 – CHI 0
  • Q2 14:11 FG TEN (14:11) 6-N.Folk 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-R.Stonehouse. TEN 10 – CHI 0
  • Q2 03:50 TD TEN (3:50) (Shotgun) 8-W.Levis pass deep right to 85-C.Okonkwo for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN [95-D.Walker]. TEN 16 – CHI 0
  • Q2 00:30 FG CHI (:30) 8-C.Santos 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor. TEN 17 – CHI 3
  • Q3 09:14 TD CHI (9:14) 4-R.Stonehouse punt is BLOCKED by 92-D.Hardy, Center-46-M.Cox, RECOVERED by CHI-36-J.Owens at TEN 21. 36-J.Owens for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 17 – CHI 9
  • Q4 14:51 FG CHI (14:51) 8-C.Santos 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor. TEN 17 – CHI 13
  • Q4 09:57 FG CHI (9:57) 8-C.Santos 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor. TEN 17 – CHI 16
  • Q4 07:45 TD CHI (7:45) (Shotgun) 8-W.Levis pass short left INTERCEPTED by 29-T.Stevenson [95-D.Walker] at TEN 43. 29-T.Stevenson for 43 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 17 – CHI 22

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 TEN 4th & 9 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (14:06) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 50 yards to CHI 27, Center-46-M.Cox. 11-D.Carter ran ob at CHI 43 for 16 yards (50-J.Gibbens).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 CHI 4th & 3 at the 50
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.79 EP
    p(convert) 53% p(FG) 29%

    (12:39) 19-T.Taylor punts 50 yards to end zone, Center-46-S.Daly, Touchback.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 TEN 4th & 11 at the 81
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (9:59) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 49 yards to CHI 32, Center-46-M.Cox. 11-D.Carter ran ob at TEN 48 for 20 yards (92-J.Harrell).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 CHI 4th & 3 at the 41
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 52% p(FG) 52%

    (8:17) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass short left to 13-K.Allen to TEN 36 for 5 yards (38-L.Sneed).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 TEN 4th & 9 at the 22
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 90%

    (14:11) 6-N.Folk 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-R.Stonehouse.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 CHI 4th & 4 at the 53
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.54 EP
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 23%

    (12:19) 19-T.Taylor punts 43 yards to TEN 10, Center-46-S.Daly. 19-J.Jackson to TEN 17 for 7 yards (21-J.Jones). PENALTY on CHI-35-K.Blasingame, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at TEN 17.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 TEN 4th & 3 at the 35
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49% p(FG) 68%

    (7:36) (Shotgun) 8-W.Levis pass short left to 83-T.Boyd to CHI 32 for 3 yards (9-J.Brisker; 29-T.Stevenson).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 CHI 4th & 1 at the 25
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 67% p(FG) 86%

    (2:00) 24-K.Herbert left tackle to TEN 21 for 4 yards (58-H.Landry; 53-E.Jones).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 CHI 4th & 6 at the 6
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 98%

    (:30) 8-C.Santos 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 TEN 4th & 15 at the 67
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (9:14) 4-R.Stonehouse punt is BLOCKED by 92-D.Hardy, Center-46-M.Cox, RECOVERED by CHI-36-J.Owens at TEN 21. 36-J.Owens for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 TEN 4th & 17 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (7:16) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 55 yards to CHI 21, Center-46-M.Cox. 11-D.Carter to CHI 35 for 14 yards (15-N.Westbrook-Ikhine). PENALTY on CHI-92-D.Hardy, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at CHI 35.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 CHI 4th & 13 at the 78
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (6:12) 19-T.Taylor punts 49 yards to TEN 29, Center-46-S.Daly. 19-J.Jackson to TEN 31 for 2 yards (46-S.Daly). PENALTY on TEN-15-N.Westbrook-Ikhine, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at TEN 31.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 TEN 4th & 1 at the 70
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.95 EP
    p(convert) 71%

    (3:57) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 59 yards to CHI 11, Center-46-M.Cox. 11-D.Carter to CHI 24 for 13 yards (85-C.Okonkwo).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 CHI 4th & 2 at the 32
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.87 EP
    p(convert) 57% p(FG) 74%

    (14:51) 8-C.Santos 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 CHI 4th & 9 at the 30
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 78%

    (9:57) 8-C.Santos 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 TEN 4th & 5 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (6:03) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 55 yards to CHI 10, Center-46-M.Cox. 11-D.Carter to CHI 11 for 1 yard (15-N.Westbrook-Ikhine, 44-M.Brown).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 CHI 4th & 6 at the 43 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 47%

    (2:33) 19-T.Taylor punts 34 yards to TEN 9, Center-46-S.Daly. 19-J.Jackson to TEN 18 for 9 yards (39-J.Blackwell; 24-K.Herbert).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 TEN 4th & 10 at the 60 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (1:15) (Shotgun) 8-W.Levis pass deep right intended for 83-T.Boyd INTERCEPTED by 1-J.Johnson [95-D.Walker] at CHI 31. 1-J.Johnson to CHI 40 for 9 yards (85-C.Okonkwo).

    See the full breakdown →