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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 6 at the 6

Chicago Bears 0 – Tennessee Titans 17

What Actually Happened

(:30) 8-C.Santos 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Daly, Holder-19-T.Taylor.

The Three Options

GO +2.33 EP
  • 36% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.35 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 6, worth +0.11 EP
KICK +2.36 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 98% chance to make a 23-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.41 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 21, worth -0.33 EP
PUNT -0.08 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model