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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Chicago Bears 4th & 3 at the 50

Chicago Bears 0 – Tennessee Titans 0

What Actually Happened

(12:39) 19-T.Taylor punts 50 yards to end zone, Center-46-S.Daly, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO +0.59 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +3.41 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 50, worth -2.57 EP
KICK -1.23 EP
  • 29% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.00 EP
  • 71% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 49, worth -2.57 EP
PUNT -0.20 EP
What Happened
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 14, worth -0.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.79 EP