Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tennessee Titans 4th & 17 at the 76

Tennessee Titans 17 – Chicago Bears 10

What Actually Happened

(7:16) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 55 yards to CHI 21, Center-46-M.Cox. 11-D.Carter to CHI 35 for 14 yards (15-N.Westbrook-Ikhine). PENALTY on CHI-92-D.Hardy, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at CHI 35.

The Three Options

GO -2.83 EP

27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +1.91 EP
73% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 76, worth -4.57 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model